There’s no mystery about who shot President Lincoln.  It was John Wilkes Booth, in Ford’s Theater.  Likewise, in the California town named after our unfortunate late president, there’s no mystery about what shot down the high prices.  Call it the credit crunch, the market meltdown, call it what you will.  The usual smoking gun is there in the form of foreclosure inventory large enough to account for roughly half of the sales, along with a few scattered short sales.

We’re doing something a little different this month and publishing quarterly figures instead of monthly, since it’s possible to start writing about first quarter results.  This report covers several MLS areas within and outside the city limits.  By zip code, it covers 95645 and 95648.

In the first quarter of this year, the average home sold for $347,434, down 29.2% from last year’s average of $490,949.  Buyers this year purchased a substantially larger home than last year, with the average home being 2,344 square feet as opposed to last year’s 2,152 square feet.  Taken together with the drop in price, this increase in size pushed the sold price per square foot down fully 35%, from $228.14 in the first quarter of 2007 to $148.22 in the first quarter of 2008.  The median sale price fell 20% from year to year, from $419,000 in Q1 2007 to $335,000 in Q1 2008.

Short sales and bank foreclosures, which accounted for only 3.9% of sales in the first quarter of 2007, made up 57.6% of sales in the first quarter of 2008.  Of those, short sales accounted for 10.3% of all sales, while bank foreclosures accounted for 47.3% of all sales.

One number that does show some signs of improvement in Lincoln from year to year is the unit volume.  Apparently a lot of buyers thought that the prospect of owning a 2,344 square foot home for just under $350,000 was reason enough to own, since unit volume increased 20.3% from 2007 to 2008. 

All in all I think Lincoln’s numbers reflect a heavily built up area on the outskirts.  Built up and bid up aggressively when times were good, Lincoln’s prices fell dropped like a brick during the downturn (recession, depression, meltdown — whatever).   But as in most areas, buyers will begin to return when they sense there’s a bargain to be had relative to the areas around it, and I think we’re starting to see this in Lincoln.

Placer County’s real estate statistics have been taking quite a dive, especially in the past few months.  As a result, the year on year decreases are bigger now than they were even a few months ago.  Overall, now this is a great market in Placer County if you’re a buyer, and a lousy market in if you’re a seller.

Looking at all residential listings (which includes condos as well as single family homes as well as certain other categories such as manufactured homes), the average home sold in Placer County in February for $388,680, down 22.1% from last February’s average of $499,095.  The median sale price fell 19.4% during the same period, from $434,000 to $350,000, while the sold price per square foot dropped 26.4%, from an average of $234.76 in February of 2007, to $172.67 in February of 2008.

Bank foreclosures and short sales are fueling the price declines.  In February of 2007, only 5.3% of all sales were foreclosures or short sales; a year later, that number has risen ten-fold, to 53% of all sales.  Foreclosures especially are the big sellers, with 44.7% of all sales in February in that category, as opposed to only 8.3% short sales.

Prices continued to fall in Roseville in February, with the year-to-year price declines higher in February than we reported last year.  The average home sold in February in Roseville for $367,376, down 17.4% from last February’s average of $390,500.  The median price of $348,243 was down 10.8% from last February’s median price of $390,500.  Since this year’s home was slightly larger than last year’s (2070 square feet versus 1992 last year), the average sold price per square foot fell even faster than the average price, dropping 20.5% from $223.19 in February of 2007 to $177.48 in February of 2008.

In Roseville — and everywhere else — bank foreclosures continue to attract buyers in droves.  With only 14.9% of active inventory currently a bank foreclosure, these homes nevertheless accounted for 47.2% of all sales in February (compared to only 4.8% a year ago). 

With short sales, the supply versus sales numbers are just the opposite.  31.9% of active inventory are short sales, but only 6.6% of sales in February were short sales.  Many buyers simply don’t have the patience to wait three months for the house they chose to close, and we’ve even had one case where the buyer canceled because by the time the short sale was approved, the perceived bargain had been eroded by the changing market.  In other words, the short sale started out as "a deal" and ended up being just another house.

In other indicators for Roseville, the expired to sold ratio is up slightly, from 41.3% in February of 2007 to 59.4% in February of 2008.  Unit volume is up slightly, from 104 units to 106, but remember we had an extra day this February due to the leap year.  Average days on market are down slightly, from 70 to 66.

Several authors including Genuine Chris Johnson have been making the point that that the real estate Blog-O’Sphere is inbred and cliquish.

I’ve been noticing that as well.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with cliques, per se, but I do object to those that don’t center around me.

This is, after all, the Social Internets. It’s a series of tubes where people should try to be more friendly to me.

Introducing the Real Estate John O’Sphere

Unlike that worn out, old, legacy Blog O’Sphere, The Real Estate John O’Sphere (O’Sphere 2.0) includes me by definition.

Here are some important differences between the real estate blogosphere and the Real Estate Johnosphere:

Membership

Membership in the Real Estate John-O’Sphere is simple. All past and future clients are members by default, since I enjoy getting paid. Therefore they are members of my O’Sphere of O’Influence.

For everyone else, the nomination process is simple. First I think about you, and then I think “Do I like that person?” If I like you and I feel like you’d make a good fit, then you’re in.

The Appeal Process

What if you’re not in, then what? Well, that’s where the appeal process begins.

You try to do something to make yourself appeal to me. If you succeed, then I let you in.

Whenever we talk about real estate market averages, we’re talking about abstractions that fall apart when you look more closely. 

The market in Granite Bay is a luxury real estate market with high end homes.  As such, you’d expect it to behave differently than other markets — and you’d be right. 

In 2007, for example, 258 homes sold in Granite Bay, so unit volume was down only 4.4% from the volume in 2006.  Likewise, homes held their value quite well compared to other markets.  Sold price per square foot dropped only 1.9% from year to year, from an average of $287.25 in 2006 to an average of $281.69 in 2007.

In 2007, the average home sold for slightly more than in 2006.  2007’s average sale price was $919,713, up .2% from 2006’s average sale price of $919,778.  The median price also rose from year to year.  In 2006, the median sale price of a home in Granite Bay was $791,000.  In 2007, the median sale price had risen to $805,000, a 1.8% increase.

Unlike other areas, prices in Granite Bay have not come tumbling down as a result of huge numbers of foreclosures being heavily discounted.  We did see more foreclosures in 2007 than 2006, but the absolute numbers are still small.  Throughout 2007, for example, only fourteen of the 258 homes that sold were bank foreclosures (5.4%).  Short sales accounted for only another nine sales (3.5% of the total).

The one indicator that did change pretty dramatically from year to year was time on market.  Average days on market rose from 36 during 2006 to 64 days in 2007.

An average of twenty homes change hand each month in Granite Bay, and there are 180 homes available in the MLS.  Currently, therefore, in Granite Bay there are 9 months of homes in inventory. 

The real estate market in Placer County in January fared worse than the real estate real estate market in Roseville alone.  While sold price per square foot fell a non-trivial 17.7% in Roseville from January to January, it fell 20.1% in Placer County overall.  214 homes sold in Placer County in January, down 8.9% from the volume last month.  This January, the average home sold for $412,092.  In contrast, last year’s average home sold for $511,143, so the drop in the average price was 19.4%.  This year’s median home sold for $346,908, a drop of 17.9% from last year’s median price of $422,500.

As in every area we study bank foreclosures (also known as REOs — Real Estate Owned — or commonly called "Bank Repos") — were on the leading edge of the downward slide in prices in Placer County in January.  If you’re thinking about buying a foreclosure in Placer County, keep this statistic in mind:  in Placer County in January, bank foreclosures sold for 35% less than non-foreclosures. 

This statistic is awesome.  Another way to put that is that the average foreclosure buyer in Placer County saved about $186,000.

Sorry, I don’t usually do bold print — but that one really got my attention! 

With these fantastic price differences, it’s no wonder that even though bank owned properties make up 11.4% of the current inventory of homes in Placer County, they made up 43.5% of all sales in January.  And it’s also no wonder that while inventory overall in Placer County is at 8.04 months, the inventory of unsold REOs based on January’s absorption rate works out to be only 3.07 months.

Over the last year, prices in Roseville have dropped quite a bit, but inventory is low by area standards and unit volume is strong, so buyers are continuing to take advantage of these price drops.

This January in Roseville, the average home sold for $371,007, down 13.3% from last year’s average price of $427,923.  Since this year’s average home was 2063 square feet versus last January’s average of 1959, the net effect is that the sold price per square foot indicator fell more rapidly than the average price.  It dropped 17.7% from year to year.  The median selling price this January was $344,500, down 12.2% from last year’s median of $392,350.

Bank owned foreclosures (REOs) are the top sellers in Roseville.  50.6% of the homes that sold in January were bank owned.  In active inventory, in contrast, bank owned properties make up only 15.4% of available homes. 

Short sales — those homes that have not yet been foreclosed on but where the seller is asking the bank to approve a sale that will not fully pay off the loan — in contrast, sell less briskly, and account for only 9.9% of all sales in January, but 28.5% of active inventory.

Although the inventory of Roseville homes is relatively low at 6.7 months, as the number of short sales and foreclosures continues to grown through 2008, I expect to see continued price drops as banks continue to try to unload their inventory.

Like most of Placer County, Roseville homes held their value better during the recent real estate downturn than homes in Sacramento County.  With slightly fewer foreclosures in inventory, Roseville prices have dropped somewhat less precipitously than Sacramento County.  Nevertheless, especially late in the year, Roseville prices fell pretty heavily in 2007.

Overall in 2007, the average home sold in Roseville for $418,569, down 10.0% from the 2006 average of $465,281.  The median sales price declined 9.4% from year to year, from $425,000 in 2006 to $385,000 in 2007.  Sold price per square foot was off 11.6%, averaging $219.67 in 2006 and $183.06 in 2007.   Unit volume was off only 8.6% for the year, with 1,365 units selling in 2007 versus 1,493 in 2006.  Foreclosures made up less than one per cent of the total sales in 2006, but 13.3% of all sales for 2007. 

As in most areas, over the course of the year more foreclosures became available, leading to deeper discounts at the end of the year than for the year overall.  As we just mentioned, overall for 2007 foreclosures made up 13.3% of total sales.  By year’s end in December, foreclosures made up 35.2% of total sales.  Sold price per square foot was off 11.6% from 2006 to 2007, but from December 2006 to December 2007 the drop was 16.7%, and by December the average sold price per square foot of a Roseville home was $183.06.

For all of that, Roseville’s inventory is not too high, at only 7 months.  Perhaps partly because of this, unit volume has not decreased too dramatically — only 8.6% overall from 2006 to 2007.  In December, the number of units was the same from year to year.

This bathroom at night scene was taken by a CRS of a home in Roseville.

At least you can see the toilet paper.

This photo was taken of a den of a home in Auburn.

This isn’t all that horrible, really, but I guess light string pulls shaped like flies are an acquired taste.